Complexity Bias and Simplicity Bias

February 8, 2022 Henning Schwinum

Or Should We Just Keep an Open Mind?

“perfect simplicity

so seldom does visit me

that when it's in the vicinity

I bask in divinity.”

from simplicity by David Hall

I have written about the silver bullet before: a simple, seemingly magical solution to a difficult problem. It is one that many leaders choose to advocate as it is easy to communicate and align an organization behind. This simplicity bias is a cognitive bias towards holding views that can be explained by a simple narrative, as opposed to views that take more complex details into account and are generally more accurate, realistic, and balanced.

For example, in the roam of sales, those one-dimensional solutions are rarely enough to create permanent improvements. A sales team is complex, with many moving parts and interdependencies. And so, I did conclude in an earlier article, there is no silver bullet.

Then I came across a piece on the complexity bias, a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue acceptance to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are said to likely choose the more complex one, the option with the most assumptions and regressions.

Complexity bias causes us to think that complicated solutions are better than simple ones. And worse, it makes us afraid of simple explanations for fear that they might be too obvious or not comprehensive enough.

So, what is it? Are we leaning towards the silver bullet or the complicated solutions? And how does that play out in sales and marketing?

Here are a few examples of the complexity bias:

A person who feels tired all the time might insist that their doctor check their iron levels while ignoring the fact that they are plain sleep-deprived.
Someone experiencing financial difficulties may stress over the technicalities of their telephone bill while ignoring the large sums of money they spend on wine.
Marketers make frequent use of the complexity bias by incorporating confusing language or insignificant details into product packaging or sales copy. Most people who buy “ammonia-free” hair dye, or a face cream which “contains peptides,” don’t even fully understand the claims. Terms like these often mean very little, but we see them and imagine that they signify a product that’s superior to alternatives.
Jargon is often unnecessary or redundant but using buzz words makes us sound more important and intelligent, an approach popular with academics, politicians, and business leaders alike. It can also cause us to avoid explanations that seem too simple. Complexity bias makes us afraid of simple explanations for fear that they might make us not sound or look intelligent enough.
In a company, when faced with decisions that might influence budgets, staffing, and overall growth of the business, the decision-makers are more likely to choose an option that seems more complex, even if it is not better.
Complexity bias can cause us to seek out more information instead of remaining content with what we already know, aka Analysis Paralysis. The more convoluted or difficult something seems, the more likely it is that people will assume there’s a good reason behind it.
And… complexity can keep life interesting, for example, when we develop elaborate rituals for making a simple cup of coffee or when we carefully tend our sourdough starters for the perfect loaf of bread.

To make matters worse, the perception of complexity often leads to avoidance. When we think something is difficult to do or understand, we don’t even try. And complex systems are more difficult to maintain; simple routines are easier to follow over time than complex ones.

Does that bring us back to the silver bullet?

Here are a few different ways that I have seen it expressed or used in the business world:

“Less is more."
“KISS - Keep it simple."
The advice that rather than asking, "how can we improve this interface?", we can ask, "how can we simplify this interface?”.
The Silver Bullet Syndrome, the belief that the next big change in tools, resources or procedures will miraculously or magically solve all an organization's problems.
R&D efforts to develop a killer product that will crush the competition.
Employing a new technology that will provide a strategic advantage.
Market consolidation, buying or merging with a competitor, supplier, or even a customer.
The annual ritual in Q4 to “cut all expenses by 15%” to meet profitability targets.

Does that always lead to the best outcomes?

“Don’t get me wrong. I am not against creating great products, employing new technologies, acquiring companies, and all the rest. What I am opposed to is the simplistic notion that one of these items can be the “silver bullet” that fixes all your problems.

In my experience, success is rarely the result of one singular action or breakthrough. Instead, it is the result of hundreds, if not thousands, of incremental improvements over time. There's no quick fix.” (Michael Hyatt)

So, how can we fight against the negative implications of both the complexity bias and the simplicity bias? I like the way Bob Hutchins describes this:

“Complex things aren't necessarily better than simple ones, and simple explanations aren't always good enough either. The best approach is to keep an open mind about all sorts of explanations, whether they are complicated or simple. Look at the evidence carefully instead of focusing on the presentation too much. If you're uncertain about who to trust when it comes to complicated concepts, look for simple explanations.”

__________________

Bob Hutchins – Your Complexity Bias is showing

FS Blog – Complexity Bias: Why We Prefer Complicated to Simple

Michael Hyatt – Silver Bullet Thinking

Photo by Anne Gosewehr